Public Programmes

Forecasting

Objectives

• To provide a practical and systematic approach to product and market forecasting
  
• To review pharmaceutical industry best practice

Target Audience

• Product managers who have to produce short and long term product forecasts

Course Content

DAY 1:
Introduction to Forecasting

• What is a forecast?
• What does a forecast do?
• How can it be used?
• Where should it be used?

The Skills needed for Effective Coaching Visits

• Time Series modelling    
• Casual Modelling    
• Multiple linear regression
• Judgemental modelling
  
• Overview of techniques

DAY 2:
Supply and Demand

• Demand forecasts
• Structure of a demand (patient) forecast

Building a Patient Forecast

• Patient Segmentation and segmentation definition
• Product Performance
  
• Marketing Variables
  
• Forecast Validation
  
• Sensitivity Analysis
  

Using Scenarios to Understand the Market

• Using scenarios
• Building alternatives
• Managing scenarios

Estimation Models

• What are estimation models?
• What value do they have?
• How can they be constructed and managed?
• Additional uses of estimation models in consensus building

Practical Tips

• Some practical "do's" and "don'ts" of forecasting