Commercial Appraisal & Forecasting of New or Existing Assets

Making the right commercial decision about your brands is vital, whether early pipeline assets, licensing candidates, or new line extensions in your life cycle management plan.

Whenever we’re asked for a commercial appraisal, our initial answer is often “it depends…”. The reason we say this is because it depends on your financial goals, such as Net Present Value, cash flow, internal rate of return, short-term profitability, and so on. NPV may be important for share price decisions, but for some small Biotech companies, cash flow may be their immediate focus.

GalbraithWight Commercial Appraisal consulting services, tools & processes help Clients make well informed decisions about their existing or potential brands by developing accurate forecasts based on rigorous forecasting & financial methodology and robust forecasting assumptions, and a clear audit trail of forecast input decisions.

Our Commercial Appraisal & Forecasting services include:

Patient-Based Modelling
The start of any good forecast is the patient base on which the forecast is built, which drives the market volume. Our tried & trusted patient-based modelling processes enable you to build robust patient models with which to conduct a wide range of scenario plans, and to identify new opportunities, or build the best forecasts for a market, a franchise or a brand.

Patient-Based Segmentation
Segmentation of your patient base is becoming more and more critical to your business plans. This may be part of a pricing & reimbursement analysis, or important segmentation, targeting & positioning work for your brand through identifying patient segments which are not well satisfied due to high unmet medical need, or attractive for other reasons, such as lack of competition. Our patient segmentation analysis will help you fully understand how a specific disease is managed, and how patient segmentation is best developed, often providing new and important insights into new opportunities.

Scenario Planning & Evaluation
Within your planning you may need to examine the impact of a number of different scenarios. These may be around labelling options, pricing & reimbursement outcomes, health technology appraisals, or different competitive or investment scenarios.

We can help you develop the assumptions & forecasts to help you evaluate the outcomes of a range of scenarios, to help you make the right decisions for your brands.

Forecasting & Financial Evaluation of New or Existing Assets
Within the clinical development and licensing processes, there are times when you need to make the right decisions, based on a robust commercial appraisal of these assets.

We can help you build the right forecast, or critically evaluate existing forecasts, so you can make the best decisions for your brands.

However we also recognise that, at different times, you need a different level of forecast and financial evaluation. That’s why we have developed four forecasting & financial evaluation services, so you can pick the right level at the right time. These are;

Platinum – a fully comprehensive 15 year patient-based forecast based on the best available epidemiological and audit data, with pricing assumptions of your brand and major competitors, plus commercial investment assumptions new competitor launch assumptions, for a single country or range of countries, with full cash flow, Profit & Loss account & Net Present Value calculations, with agreed time intervals (months or years).

Gold – a fully comprehensive 10 year patient-based forecast based on the best available epidemiological and audit data, with pricing assumptions of your brand and major competitors, plus commercial investment assumptions new competitor launch assumptions, for a single country or range of countries, with full Profit & Loss account calculations, with agreed time intervals (months or years).

Silver – a comprehensive 10 year annual forecast based on the best available market data, with pricing assumptions of your brand and major competitors, for a single country or range of countries with full Profit & Loss account calculations.

Bronze– a comprehensive 10 year annual forecast based on the best available market data, with pricing assumptions of your brand and major competitors, for a single country or range of countries. NB All data for forecasts from commercial data providers will be made available by the Client, or acquired on behalf of the Client as a project cost.